What OEMs Must Know to Stay Ahead in an Evolving Market - Navigating Domestic Production, Recycling, and Global Trade
Part of the Copper Conversations Campaign – March 2025 – Adam Kotrba
As industries around the world increasingly rely on copper for everything from electric vehicles (EVs) and data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) to grid expansion and enhancements to alternative energy sources like solar power and battery storage, understanding the complexities of copper supply and demand has never been more critical. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are directly impacted by fluctuations in copper availability, and in the current landscape, the challenges are more pronounced than ever. With ongoing supply disruptions, growing demand (S&P Global estimates global copper demand is expected to nearly double by 2035, reaching about 50 million metric tons), and sustainability concerns, OEMs must adapt to a rapidly evolving market to stay competitive.
To make the situation even more complex, on February 25, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order launching an investigation into the national security implications of copper imports. The investigation could lead to measures like tariffs or incentives to bolster domestic copper production. The administration’s stance is clear, "It is the policy of the United States to ensure a reliable, secure, and resilient domestic copper supply chain.”
This recognition of copper’s strategic importance is a crucial step toward securing the future of U.S. manufacturing. As the voice of the U.S. copper industry, the Copper Development Association (CDA) is committed to helping OEMs navigate these challenges, advocating for copper’s strategic importance both in the U.S. and globally alongside the International Copper Association (ICA).
Domestic Copper: Enough to Meet Demand, But Risks Remain
While the U.S. has substantial copper resources, the challenge lies in fully harnessing these domestic supplies to meet the growing demand. There is enough copper in the U.S. to satisfy the nation's needs, but to achieve this, the country will need to expand its domestic production capacity, enhance recycling efforts, and continue importing from reliable trade partners. However, each of these approaches carries its own risks and limitations.
- Increasing Domestic Copper Mining and Refining
The U.S. is the fifth-largest copper-producing country and has significant copper reserves, particularly in states like Arizona, Utah, and Nevada. Yet, regulatory, financial, and environmental barriers make expanding domestic production a slow and costly process. The permitting process for new mining projects in the U.S. can take up to 29 years - one of the longest timelines globally -creating significant delays.
Despite these challenges, there is a clear opportunity to increase domestic production by streamlining the permitting process and supporting key mining projects. This will not only boost domestic supply but also enhance national security by reducing reliance on foreign sources. - Enhancing Copper Recycling Efforts
Copper is one of the most recyclable metals, it retains nearly the same quality as virgin copper, and the United States has by far the largest supply of secondary copper globally, 86 million tons of copper is in our 'Urban Mine. ' Despite this wealth of material, the U.S. misses a key opportunity by exporting more than 50% of the copper scrap it recycles, instead of processing it within its own borders. This is largely due to insufficient secondary refining capacity. However, several new secondary smelters are in progress, increasing capacity by over 400,000 tonnes, and creating increased opportunities to reuse copper domestically. Increasing domestic use of recycled copper scrap would enhance sustainability and augment supply. - Continued Imports from Reliable Trade Partners
The U.S. benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with major copper-producing countries like Chile, Peru, Canada, and Mexico. These partnerships are crucial for diversifying our copper supply. However, these nations also supply other countries and are not projected to increase production fast enough to meet U.S. needs alone. This reinforces the need for an all-of-the-above sourcing strategy that also involves increased domestic mining, refining, and recycling. It is important to note that disruptions, such as the Panama Canal crisis, could restrict shipping routes, further tightening supply chains and increasing costs. If the U.S. does not take immediate action to secure domestic supply, dependence on foreign copper could exceed 60% by 2035, forcing greater reliance on non-FTA countries with less predictable trade policies.
None of the solutions - domestic production, recycling, or imports - can singly meet the growing demand for copper. While each plays a critical role, all come with limitations that must be addressed. Expanding domestic copper production will take time and significant investment. Recycling infrastructure must be ramped up to handle increased volumes. And while continued imports will be necessary, they depend on stable global trade relations that could be disrupted due to international political dynamics.
How to Stay Ahead in an Evolving Market
Considering these challenges, OEMs must develop comprehensive strategies to mitigate risks associated with copper supply. Here are some steps that OEMs can take:
- Reliable Supply Chains
Partnering with reliable, long-term supply chains and establishing strong relationships with trusted suppliers helps OEMs reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions and trade restrictions. CDA members are a key part of these reliable partnerships, offering domestically produced materials with quick turnaround times and a commitment to meeting growing demand. Many CDA members are already expanding their operations to support this need. For example, Rome Revere Copper has announced capital expansion projects, and Wieland is undertaking a $500 million modernization and expansion project in East Alton, Illinois. These initiatives will help secure a more stable and resilient copper supply for the future. - Invest in Recycling Infrastructure
Expanding copper recycling is essential to meeting growing demand, but it requires substantial investment in infrastructure. OEMs should consider integrating more recycled copper into their products and collaborate with industry partners to improve recycling technologies and processes. Many CDA members are leading the charge in this area, investing in advanced recycling and refining capabilities to support the supply of sustainable copper.- For example, one of the largest copper recyclers in the world, Aurubis, opened a state-of-the-art recycling plant in Augusta County, Georgia. The facility has the capacity to process over 180,000 tons of complex recycling materials annually, including circuit boards and copper cables, and has created over 230 jobs. This new plant has significantly increased the capacity for recycling copper in the U.S., bolstering domestic supply. Similarly, AMES Copper Group in Shelby, North Carolina, which became operational in 2022, was the first secondary copper recycling facility in the United States to produce copper anodes from copper scrap and copper fines.
These investments by CDA members not only enhance the supply of recycled copper but also contribute to the growth of domestic refining capabilities, reducing the U.S.'s reliance on imports. OEMs can benefit from these advancements by incorporating recycled copper into their products, helping meet sustainability goals while also securing a more stable, resilient copper supply.
- For example, one of the largest copper recyclers in the world, Aurubis, opened a state-of-the-art recycling plant in Augusta County, Georgia. The facility has the capacity to process over 180,000 tons of complex recycling materials annually, including circuit boards and copper cables, and has created over 230 jobs. This new plant has significantly increased the capacity for recycling copper in the U.S., bolstering domestic supply. Similarly, AMES Copper Group in Shelby, North Carolina, which became operational in 2022, was the first secondary copper recycling facility in the United States to produce copper anodes from copper scrap and copper fines.
- Partner with CDA to Advocate for Policy Support
Numerous nations already recognize copper as a critical mineral and are actively working to secure their domestic supplies. In contrast, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has not classified copper as a critical mineral, despite its fundamental importance to energy, defense, manufacturing, and the broader economy.
CDA is strongly advocating for this change. On March 10, 2025, CDA President & CEO Adam Estelle formally requested the Secretary of the United States Department of the Interior to designate copper as an official Critical Mineral. This request cites section 7002(c)(4)(B) of the Energy Act of 2020 and urges the USGS to exercise its statutory authority. Such a designation would unlock vital policy tools to strengthen copper supply chains, incentivize investment in domestic copper production, and reduce the nation's dependence on foreign sources.
OEMs can act by engaging with CDA in policy discussions that support an all-of-the-above strategy, that includes increasing domestic production, enhancing recycling efforts, and maintaining strong trade relationships. By pursuing this multi-faceted approach, the U.S. can ensure that domestic manufacturers have access to the copper they need to thrive, while also bolstering national security and economic stability.
Ensuring a Bright Future for U.S. Manufacturing
New trade policies are reshaping the dynamics of the U.S. manufacturing sector, particularly concerning copper supply and demand. With ample domestic copper resources, the U.S. can meet demand, but it will require an integrated approach that includes increasing domestic production, enhancing recycling efforts, and maintaining strong trade relationships. OEMs must stay ahead of these changes by adopting proactive strategies to secure a reliable and sustainable copper supply.
CDA is committed to ensuring that OEMs have the information and resources they need to navigate the evolving copper landscape. We believe that America has enough copper domestically, but we need an all-of-the-above approach to secure the supply, together with copper being officially recognized as critical by the USGS.
We urge OEMs and other stakeholders to join us in this effort. Connect with us on our various social media platforms and reach out to your elected officials to advocate for copper’s criticality. Together, we can ensure a bright future for U.S. manufacturing, powered by copper.